[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no spotted regions on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (14-16 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,910 pfu at 13/1940 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next three days (14-16 Sep) while solar wind parameters remain elevated. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment remained enhanced due to ongoing CH HSS effects. Total field varied between 2 and 8 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT. Solar wind speeds increased during the second half of the period from around 500 km/s to around 560 km/s. Phi was mostly positive.

Forecast: Conditions are likely to remain elevated for the next two days (14-16 Sep) as Earth periodically interfaces with the north polar CH HSS. Day three (15 Sep) is expected to be enhanced as well but with the onset of another CH HSS (negative polarity).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels during the first synoptic period of the day due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to experience mostly unsettled levels, with isolated active levels for the next three days (14-16 Sep) due to the north polar CH HSS for the first two days, then a negative polarity CH HSS arriving late on day three.

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