[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no spotted regions on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low for all three days of the forecast period (15-17 Sep).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 42,500 pfu at 14/2055 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next three days (15-17 Sep) while solar wind parameters remain elevated. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment remained enhanced due to ongoing CH HSS effects. Wind speed peaked at approximately 650 km/s. Total field ranged between 2 and 6 nT while Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. Phi was mostly positive.

Forecast: Conditions are likely to remain elevated on day one (15 Sep) as Earth periodically interfaces with the northern polar CH HSS. Late on day two (16 Sep) an additional enhancement is expected due to influence of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to experience mostly unsettled levels, with isolated active levels over the next three days (15-17 Sep) due to the northern polar CH HSS for the first day, then a negative polarity CH HSS arriving late on day two and persisting through day three.

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