[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless disk. An area of emerging flux was observed near S06W40. A narrow CME was observed from behind the west limb in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at around 15/1136 UTC, however, this CME appears to be directed away of the Sun-Earth line.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 17-19 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 34,900 pfu observed at 16/2140 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 17-19 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected ambient conditions early in the period. At about 17/0115 UTC, a SSBC from a positive to a negative orientation was observed. This was coupled with a weak CIR in advance of an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS. Total field peaked at 12 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -7 nT. Wind speeds gradually increased to near 550 km/s with a maximum of 587 observed at 17/0809 UTC. Phi angle remained in a negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced on 17-19 Sep due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels later on 17 Sep and early on 18 Sep due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels are expected by 19 Sep.

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