[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. There were no numbered regions and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 18-20 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 17,200 pfu observed at 17/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 18-20 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: A CH HSS (recurrent, negative polarity) was affecting Earth. A SSBC was observed early in the period followed by a rise in total field strength to around 10 nT. Field strength gradually settled out to around 4 nT by the end of the day, while Bz varied between +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds remained steady at just above 500 km/s before gradually beginning to taper off near the end of the period. The phi angle was negative with the onset and ongoing influence of the CH HSS.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced on 18 Sep due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Near background levels are anticipated 19-20 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on 18 Sep with isolated active levels being reached. A day of transition is expected on 19 Sep as solar wind conditions return to near background levels, and the geomagnetic field returns to mostly quiet with occasional isolated unsettled periods. By 20 Sep, conditions are expected to be at mostly quiet levels as CH HSS activity winds down.

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