[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 22-24 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 10,633 pfu at 21/2200 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (22 Sep). An increase to moderate to high levels on days two and three (23-24 Sep) is expected due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected ambient background conditions through early in the period. After 21/1500 UTC, an enhancements was observed in total magnetic field strength with a peak of 11 nT observed at 21/2147 UTC. The Bz component was predominantly southward after about 21/2000 UTC reaching a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT. Phi angle was in a negative orientation until about 21/2145 UTC when a SSBC to a positive orientation was observed. Phi remained positive through periods end. Wind speeds averaged about 350 km/s through 21/2300 UTC when an increase to near 400 km/s was observed. Wind speeds further increased through the period to end near 475 km/s.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced upon the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS late on day one (22 Sep). This CH HSS enhancement is expected through day two (23 Sep) and to become further enhanced on day three (24 Sep) as influence from a negative polarity CH HSS persists.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet until late in the day when G1 (Minor) storm levels were reached due to prolonged periods of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to active levels, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels expected, over the remainder of day one (22 Sep) due to a SSBC ahead of influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on day two (23 Sep) as persistent CH HSS effects continue. Day three (24 Sep)is expected to be at quiet to active levels due to the anticipated arrival of an additional negative polarity, CH HSS feature.

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