[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2723 (S12, L=000) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 05-07 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 05-07 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a mostly nominal environment. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 375-400 km/s and phi angle transitioned to the positive sector after 04/2136 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to continue at near-background levels on day one and two (05-06 Oct). An enhancement is expected on 07 Oct due to the anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 05-06 Oct. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 07 Oct due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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