[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 08 1230 UTC.

Solar activity remained at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 08-10 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 08-10 Oct due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the continued influence from the positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength dropped from a peak of 18 nT at 07/1225 UTC. The Bz component reached as far south as 15 nT at 07/1418 UTC. Solar wind speeds remained elevated between 500-600 through most of the period. Phi angle was oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS through the forecast period (08-10 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 08 Oct. Mostly unsettled to active levels are likely through 09-10 Oct due to persistent but waning CH HSS influence.

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