[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low with a spotless visible disk. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 11-13 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, observing a maximum flux value of 20,700 pfu at 10/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels from 11-13 Oct due to persistent CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect residual CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed averaged around 500 km/s to begin the period, peaked near 536 km/s at 10/2351 UTC, then decreased to average near 475 km/s for the remainder of the period. Total field strength began the period near 8 nT before gradually decreasing to average near 4 nT for the majority of the rest of the period. The Bz component varied between +/-6 nT, with a maximum southward deflection to near -7 nT. Phi angle was in a positive orientation throughout most of the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to see a gradual return to more ambient conditions from 11-13 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes to more of a background solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions due to prolonged southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for an isolated active period on 11 Oct, possibly associated with proximity to the north polar CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 12-13 Oct as CH HSS influences wane.

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