[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 19-21 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,360 pfu observed at 18/1950 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 19-21 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind density values became enhanced early this period, increasing from initial values near 1 particle per cubic cm to around 3-5, likely indicative of an imminent SSBC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning late on 19 Oct through 20 Oct due to the influence of a north polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly return to background levels over the course of 21 Oct with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels late on 19 Oct due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are expected early on 20 Oct under continued, but weakening CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail on 21 Oct with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

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