[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the solar disk was spotless. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 21-23 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,210 pfu observed at 20/2055 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: A solar wind enhancement due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS was observed this period. Solar wind speed values were steady between 275-300 km/s until around 21/0700 UTC, when speeds began to increase to end-of-period values around 335 km/s. Total field strength values reached 9nT and Bz reached -7nT late in the period. Solar wind density values steadily increased throughout the period and the temperature profile was consistent with CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 21 Oct under continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Background levels are expected on 22-23 Oct with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet this period despite weak CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 21 Oct in response to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Generally quiet conditions are expected on 22-23 Oct with the anticipated return of a nominal solar wind regime.

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