[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Nov 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Nov 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A small unipolar spot emerged at approximately N26W23. It has not yet been assigned an official NOAA/SWPC number as we await further observations. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 9-11 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 2,890 pfu at 08/1950 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease from high to normal levels on 09-10 Nov due to the onset of a CIR. Moderate to high levels are expected on 11 Nov due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speed decreased to sub 400 km/s. Total field and the Bz component were at benign values. Phi was variable.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced late on 9 Nov through 10 Nov due to CIR onset and subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. Elevated speeds are expected to continue through 11 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected be mostly quiet to unsettled until late on 9 Nov. Active periods, with isolated G1 (minor) storm levels are likely late on 9 Nov through 10 Nov due to the onset of the aforementioned CIR and CH HSS. 11 Nov is expected to see unsettled to active levels due to persisting CH HSS influences.

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