[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Nov 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Nov 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2726 (N05W22, Axx/alpha) nearly decayed to plage. No CME activity was observed with the coronal dimming in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at approximately 13/1740 UTC in the area of Region 2726. However, near the same time, a CME was observed off the SW limb associated with eruptive prominence activity. Given the source location, this CME is headed SW of the Sun-Earth line. As of this summary, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 14-16 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1803 pfu observed at 13/2015 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 14-16 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a return to near background levels. Solar wind speed began the period near 490 km/s before gradually decreasing to end the period near 410 km/s. Total field strength averaged near 4 nT, while the Bz was mostly positive, averaging around 3-5 nT. Phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect nominal background conditions on 14-16 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet levels are expected on 14-16 Nov as nominal background conditions are anticipated to continue.

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