[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Nov 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Nov 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. GONG and SDO AIA/304 imagery observed a 17 degree long filament eruption along a channel centered near S56W09. The filament erupted between 30/0214-0603 UTC. Limited LASCO imagery detected a pair of slow-moving CMEs, the first one off the SW limb, first visible at about 30/0636 UTC and the second one off the SSW limb, first visible at about 30/0736 UTC. Analysis of these CMEs will be conducted as more imagery becomes available. No additional CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on days one through three (30 Nov-02 Dec).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal background levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (30 Nov-01 Dec) and high levels on day three (02 Dec) in response to elevated wind speeds associated with CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected ambient background conditions.

Forecast: Background conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of day one (30 Nov) and into day two (01 Dec). Late on day two, enhanced solar wind conditions are expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions are expected to persist on day three (02 Dec).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the remainder of day one (30 Nov) under a nominal solar wind regime. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on days two and three (01-02 Dec) due to influence from recurrent CH HSS activity.

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