[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 01-03 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal background levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (01 Dec) with high levels on days two and three (02-03 Dec) in response to elevated wind speeds associated with CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected mostly ambient background conditions. However, the total field became slightly enhanced in the second half of the period. Total field increased to around 8 nT and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Densities also became enhanced around 0200 UTC, reaching a peak of 27 particles per square CM at 0959 UTC, reflecting an incoming SSBC ahead of a CIR.

Forecast: Background conditions are expected to prevail through late on day one (01 Dec) when enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated due to the arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions are expected to persist on days two and three (02-03 Dec).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on days one and two (01-02 Dec) in response to the aforementioned CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day three (03 Dec) as effects taper.

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