[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Dec 03 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Dec 03 0309 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 November - 02 December 2018

Solar activity was very low. GONG and SDO imagery displayed a 17 degree long filament eruption between 30/0214-0603 UTC. The filament was centered near S56W09. Two subsequent CME signatures were observed in coronagraph imagery. Analysis and modeling suggested an Earth-directed component was present despite most of the ejecta moving south of the ecliptic place. Arrival of the slow-moving transient is expected on 05 Dec.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active. Quiet conditions increased to unsettled on 01-02 Dec, with an isolated period of active observed at the end of 02 Dec, due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Enhancements from the CIR increased Bt to a maximum of 10 nT on 01 Dec and wind speeds peaked at 460 km/s on 02 Dec. Nominal solar wind produced quiet conditions over the remainder of the reporting period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 December - 29 December 2018

Solar activity is expected to remain very low over the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are expected on 03-04 Dec and 07-12 Dec; moderate levels are expected on 06 Dec and 14-16 Dec; normal background levels are expected on 05 Dec and 17-19 Dec. All enhancements in are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active levels are expected on 03-05 Dec and 29 Dec; unsettled levels are expected on 06-09 Dec, 17-19 Dec and 28 Dec; quiet levels are expected over the remainder of the period. All enhancements in geomagnetic field activity are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs, with the exception of 05 Dec, when a slow-moving transient is likely to pass Earth.

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