[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2729 (S05W76, Bxo/beta) exhibited decay across the entire region. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 08-10 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: Moderate to high electron flux levels are expected on 08-10 Dec due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested a transition from the CIR into the HSS proper. Total magnetic field strength decreased from a peak of 10 nT at the start of the period to between 2-8 nT after. Bz remained mostly between +/- 5 nT. Wind speeds reached a brief maximum of 569 km/s at 08/0721 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue on 08-09 Dec due to continued CH HSS influence. A trend towards nominal conditions is expected over 10 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels on 08 Dec due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected 09 Dec, with a chance of isolated active periods, due to continued CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions, with a chance of unsettled periods, are likely 10 Dec as CH HSS influence wanes.

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