[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jan 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2732 (N09W68, Bxo/beta) exhibited decay among all the spots over the last 24 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 05-07 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to background levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels 05 Jan, and moderate to high levels 06-07 Jan in response to a CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels on 05-07 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated the onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached a brief peak of 14 nT around 04/1700 UTC. The Bz component reached as far south as -10 nT around 05/0200 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from near 350 km/s at 04/2100 UTC to peak of 558 km/s observed at 05/1012 UTC. Phi angle shifted from predominantly positive to negative after 05/0100 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels due to CH HSS influence over days one and two (05-06 Jan). Mostly background conditions are expected by the end of day three (07 Jan).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels due to the onset of a CH HSS.

Forecast: G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 05 Jan due to the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 06 Jan and quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 07 Jan as influence from the CH HSS slowly diminishes.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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