[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 Jan 14 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Jan 14 0403 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 January 2019

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless during the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 07-10 Jan and moderate levels on 11-13 Jan. The peak flux was 2,970 pfu observed at 07/2040 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind parameters began the period under waning negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speed began the period near 535 km/s, but diminished to near 345 km/s by 10/0720 UTC. Total field remained at 6 nT or less during this time. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 07 Jan followed by quiet levels on 08-10 Jan. By late on 10 Jan, solar wind speed once again increased to near 515 km/s by 11/0435 UTC while total field only increased briefly to a maximum of 8 nT at 11/0635 UTC. The Bz component deflected southward for approximately 3 hours to near -6 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with an isolated active period on 11 Jan. By 12 and 13 Jan, solar wind speed had decreased to below 400 km/s. The geomagnetic field was once again quiet on 12-13 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 January - 09 February 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 14-19 Jan and 03-09 Feb. A slight chance for C-class flares is expected on 20 Jan-02 Feb due to the return of old Region 2732 (N09, L=215).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 25-27 Jan and 02-06 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 15-16 Jan. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 24-26 Jan and 31 Jan - 03 Feb with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 24 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

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