[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jan 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. New spot emergence was observed near N07E45. Beginning at 21/0130 UTC, a filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery in the SW quadrant. Although the direction of the liftoff appeared to be southward of the Sun-Earth line, further coronagraph imagery is needed for analysis.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 21-23 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on 21-23 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from approximately 320-385 km/s. Total field was at or below 5 nT while the Bz component was between +2/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue at nominal levels on 21-22 Jan. An enhancement is anticipated on 23 Jan due to the onset of a CIR/CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 21-22 Jan under a nominal solar wind regime. Active conditions are likely on 23 Jan due to the anticipated onset from a positive polarity CH HSS.

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