[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 15-17 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is anticipated to be at high levels on 15-17 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced at the end of the period. Solar wind speeds averaged ~500 km/s. Total field averaged 5 nT, while the Bz component was variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Phi was mostly in a negative orientation.

Forecast: The southern, pole-connected CH HSS is expected to continue. Conditions should gradually wane over 15 Feb. A return to ambient quiet conditions is forecast for 16-17 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled levels on 15 Feb. 16-17 Feb are expected to see a return to quiet levels.

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