[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for 27 Feb-01 Mar.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on 27 Feb but see an increase, reaching normal to high levels on 28 Feb and 01 Mar, due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime for a majority of the period. However, a SSBC occurred at approximately 0824 UTC as the phi angle entered into a negative solar sector. Total field became slightly enhanced to 9 nT, and the Bz component reached a maximum deflection of -8 nt. Density values increased to a peak of 43.15 particles per cubic cm at 1200 UTC.

Forecast: Enhanced conditions are expected to continue on 27 Feb due to CIR arrival ahead of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed is expected to increase further on 28 Feb due to improved CH HSS geoeffectiveness, with speeds likely to reach at or over 550 km/s based on model projections, recurrence data, and STEREO-A observations. Elevated solar wind speed is expected to continue into 01 Mar as CH HSS influences continue, but with a weakened IMF strength.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely later on 27 Feb, due to CIR arrival followed by initial CH HSS onset. Primarily unsettled to active levels are expected on 28 Feb, with another likely period of G1 storm conditions due to increased solar wind speeds from improved CH HSS connection. By 01 Mar, conditions are expected to be primarily unsettled to active as CH HSS effects persist, but under the less favorable solar wind state.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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