[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Mar 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Mar 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no sunspots were present on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (01-03 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels all three days (01-03 Mar) as CH HSS effects continue. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to stay at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of anticipated influences of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 520-550 km/s, and briefly reached speeds in excess of 600 km/s. Total IMF strength averaged between 4 and 8 nT. The Bz component underwent periods of prolonged and pronounced southward direction, reaching a max of -8 nT. The phi angle as negative.

Forecast: Elevated solar wind speed is expected to continue over the next three days (01-03 Mar) as Earth remains connected to the CH HSS. An additional, isolated CH HSS is likely to keep solar wind speed elevated on day three, as the currently geoeffective CH HSS wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels, with a chance of an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming, on day one (01 Mar) as CH HSS influences remain favorable for enhanced geomagnetic responses. Day two (02 Mar) is expected to experience lesser levels of response at quiet to unsettled levels, with a likely period of active conditions as elevated solar wind speeds continue. The geomagnetic response by day three (03 Mar) is expected to be at primarily quiet to unsettled levels as CH HSS influences continue, but in a weakened state.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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