[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 Mar 11 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Mar 04 0318 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 February - 03 March 2019

Solar activity was very low through the summary period. There were no numbered spot regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to high levels. High levels were observed on 28 Feb - 03 Mar. A peak flux of 45,516 pfu was observed at 03/1950 UTC. The remaining days of the summary period were at normal background levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Solar wind enhancements from the onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS increased geomagnetic levels from unsettled to active conditions after midday on 27 Feb. Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels were observed on 28 Feb - 01 Mar as wind speeds continued to increase, reaching a peak of 608 km/s on 01/0340 UTC. An isolated period of active conditions was followed by quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of 02-03 Mar as the CH HSS slowly waned. The remaining days of the summary period were at quiet levels under nominal solar wind conditions.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 March - 30 March 2019

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period. No notable regions are due to return to the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal background to very high levels. Very high levels are likely on 04-05 Mar and 29-30 Mar; high levels are likely on 06-13 Mar and 29-28 Mar; moderate levels are likely on 14-19 Mar; normal background levels are likely on 20-26 Mar. All enhancements in electron flux are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) levels are likely on 27-28 Mar; active levels are likely on 08-10 Mar, 26 Mar and 29 Mar; unsettled levels are likely on 04-05 Mar, 07 Mar, 11 Mar, 20 Mar and 30 Mar. Increases in geomagnetic field activity are anticipated due to the likely influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.

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