[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Mar 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Mar 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2734 (N08W79) was inactive, and decayed to plage overnight. A faint, slow CME was observed off the East limb in C2 coronagraph imagery early on the 12 Mar UTC day. Analysis and modeling are underway, and will be available by the next forecast period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next three days (13-15 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 13-14 Mar, and normal to high levels on 15 Mar due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal slow solar wind regime. Total field averaged around 5 nT, and the Bz component was +/- 4 nT. Wind speeds averaged near 350 km/s, and the phi angle was primarily in a negative orientation.

Forecast: Weak disturbances embedded within the IMF are possible on 13 Mar. A non-recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated on 15 Mar.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance of an isolated active period possible, on 13 Mar in response to weak disturbances embedded within the IMF. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 14 Mar as the solar wind environment returns to mostly background levels. Active levels are again possible on 15 Mar with the arrival of a non recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.

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