[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flaring on 03-05 May due to the return of old Region 2738 (N06, L=302).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a maximum flux of 2,980 pfu observed at 02/2040 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels 03-05 May due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested waning influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 4-7 nT while the Bz component ranged a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from a peak of 573 km/s at 02/1539 UTC to near 400 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: CH HSS enhancements are expected to slowly diminish over 03 May, returning to mostly nominal levels over 04-05 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on 03 May as effects from the negative polarity CH HSS slowly wane. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 04-05 May.

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