[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels this period. Region 2740 (N08E60, Hhx/alpha) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C2/Sf observed at 04/2243 UTC. The region was mostly stable during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flaring on 05-07 May due to the potential from Region 2740.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,750 pfu observed at 04/0005 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 05-07 May due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested continued influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. The Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nt early in the period and was mostly neutral or positive for the remainder of the day. Solar wind speeds were in general decline, from a peak of 524 km/s at 04/1707 UTC to a near 400 km/s by the periods end. Phi was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is expected to continue throughout the forecast period (05-07 May) due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for active conditions on day one (05 May). Quiet to active conditions are expected on days two and three (06-07 May) due to CH HSS influence.

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