[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2740 (N07E47, Cho/beta-delta) produced several C-class X-ray flares, the strongest of which was an impulsive C9.9/1N observed at 06/0509 UTC. Accompanying the event was a Type II radio sweep (speed of 740 km/s). Further coronagraph imagery from LASCO is needed to determine if an Earth-directed component is present.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) flaring, on 06-08 May due to the increased magnetic complexity of Region 2740.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,177 pfu observed at 05/2015 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 06-08 May due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated waning CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased from around 450 km/s at the beginning of the period to around 375 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected over (06-08 May) due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06-07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 May) due to CH HSS influence.

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