[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2741 (N06W63, Hax/alpha) remained stable through the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 17-19 May.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 1,155 pfu at 16/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 17-19 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated continuing slight enhancements. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 9 nT at 16/1627 UTC but declined to 5 nT after 17/0000 UTC. Solar wind speeds climbed from a low of 412 km/s to around 460 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle transitioned to mostly negative after 16/2130 UTC.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated on 17 May due to the possible arrival of the 13 May CME. Tapering CME effects are likely on 18 May. A return to background solar wind conditions is expected on 19 May. Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17 May in anticipation of the arrival of a CME that first left the Sun on 13 May. Waning effects from the CME are expected to produce mostly unsettled conditions over 18 May and mostly quiet conditions over 19 May.

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