[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jun 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jun 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 13-15 Jun.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate levels for 13-15 Jun due to an enhanced solar environment. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due to a positive polarity, CH HSSs influence from an extension of the northern, permanent crown. Total field values ranged from 2-8 nT, and Bz component underwent a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Wind speeds increased from ambient-like values to around 450 km/s. The phi angle was predominately in a positive orientation.

Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is expected to continue over the remainder of 13 Jun. Additionally, there is a chance for solar wind conditions to reflect passage of a slow CME on 13 Jun. Waning CH/CME conditions are forecast for 14 Jun. Ambient conditions are expected on 15 Jun.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to see mostly quiet to unsettled, with a chance for an isolated active period, conditions due to CH HSS effects from a positive polarity, northern crown extension, CH on 13 Jun. There is also a chance for weak impacts from a slow CME on 13 Jun. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for 14 Jun, and quiet on 15 Jun.

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