[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jul 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jul 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No sunspots were present on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 15-17 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,208 pfu observed at 14/1735 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (15-17 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced with solar wind steady at an average speed of about 450 km/s. An isolated peak of near 500 km/s was observed at about 15/1000 UTC. Total field generally ranged from 1-7 nT with a brief increase to 10 nT at 15/1018 UTC. The Bz component varied between +5 to -7 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive solar sector with a brief rotation to a negative orientation between 15/0855-1003 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by midday on 15 Jul as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550 km/s range are expected based on STEREO-A solar wind data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: By midday on 15 Jul, a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective resulting in unsettled to active conditions. Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist into 16 Jul followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 17 Jul.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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