[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jul 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jul 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 17-19 Jul due to a lack of sunspots or active regions.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels, with a maximum flux reached of 2,840 pfu at 16/1835 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on 17-19 Jul, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period near background levels. Wind speeds averaged around 375 km/s, total field was steady near 4 nT, Bz had minor deviations, and the phi angle was in a positive orientation. Just after 17/0000 UTC, solar winds, density, total field, and Bz all observed a gradual, weak enhancement. Wind speeds eventually peaked over 500 km/s, total field strength reached 7 nT, the Bz component saw weak southward deflections to -5 nT, and the phi angle intermittently oscillated to the negative sector. These weak enhancements are likely the result of a tepid interaction with a negative polarity coronal hole.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to remain near background levels for 17-19 Jul, with isolated enhancements due primarily to weak interactions with the isolated, negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, with a chance for an occasional unsettled period, on 17-19 Jul in response to possible weak interactions with the negative polarity CH HSS.

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