[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Aug 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Aug 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 04-06 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on 04 Aug. Flux levels are expected to increase to normal to moderate levels on 05 Aug with a further increase to moderate to high levels on 06 Aug, all as a result of CH HSS activity.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal environment. Winds gradually declined through the period from near 400 km/s to speeds approaching 340 km/s. Total field ranged between 2-4 nT while the Bz component varied weakly between +/-3 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation.

Forecast: Background levels are anticipated through about midday on 04 Aug. Thereafter, and through 06 Aug, an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS will move into a geoeffective position resulting in enhanced solar wind parameters. STEREO-A PLASTIC data indicates wind speeds approaching 575-600 km/s are possible with this feature.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected through midday on 04 Aug. Thereafter, and through 06 Aug, an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS will move into a geoeffective position increasing geomagnetic field conditions. Unsettled to active levels are anticipated by midday on 04 Aug with unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely on 05-06 Aug.

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