[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Aug 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Aug 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low 10-12 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a maximum flux of 16,327 pfu observed at 09/1945 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels on 10-12 Aug due to HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of an enhanced environment. Wind speeds were elevated and peaked near 657 km/s at 09/2208 UTC before decreasing to ~500 km/s. Total field reached 7 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-5 nT. The phi angle was in a predominantly positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to become further enhanced later on 10 Aug. A CIR, coincident with a SSBC (positive to negative), is expected in advance of a pair of negative polarity CH HSSs. HSS conditions are expected to persist through 11 Aug with a slow, gradual return to more nominal levels by 12 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through late 10 Aug. From late on 10 Aug through 11 Aug, quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated due to isolated, negative polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for 12 Aug.

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