[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Aug 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Aug 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 31 Aug - 02 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 31 Aug. An increase to moderate to high levels on 01-02 Sep is expected in response to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a slow regime to start the period. Just after 30/1200 UTC, total field strength increased from 5 nT to 12 nT, the Bz component deflected from 2 nT to -3 nT, and solar wind speeds increased from around 380 km/s to near 430 km/s. Wind speeds continued to increase throughout the period to reach a peak speed approaching 700 km/s by periods end, and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -10 nT. These enhanced parameters indicated an early arrival of the anticipated CIR in advance of the positive polarity CH HSS. phi angle remained positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect continued enhanced levels on 31 Aug - 01 Sep. Conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated on 02 Sep, but begin a gradual decrease by the end of the period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 31 Aug, due to persistent CH HSS influence. CH HSS influence is expected to continue through the beginning of 01 Sep, with periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm conditions likely early in the period. Late on 02 Sep, conditions are expected to taper off as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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