[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 Oct 14 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Oct 14 0407 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 October 2019

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 08-13 Oct and at high levels on 07 Oct. The maximum flux of the period was 1,930 pfu observed at 07/1745 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period started off at nominal levels with solar wind speeds in the 350-405 km/s range. by 09 Oct, total field increased to 11 nT at 09/2135 UTC followed by an increase in solar wind speed to approximately 490 km/s as a weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into geoeffective positon. Solar wind speed remained enhanced through late on 11 Oct. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active conditions on 09-10 Oct and quiet to unsettled levels on 11 Oct.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 October - 09 November 2019

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 16 and 24 Oct and again on 04-09 Nov. High levels are expected on 14-15 Oct and on 25 Oct-03 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 14-15 Oct due to possible weak CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 21 Oct and 24-28 with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 24-25 Oct due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

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