[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Oct 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Oct 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low this period and no new Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Analysis of a faint, slow-moving CME from 25/0654 UTC suggests a possible Earth-directed component that is anticipated to arrive late on 29 Oct or early on 30 Oct.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 27-29 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 21,000 pfu observed at 26/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels, with a chance for very high flux levels, on 27-29 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS this period. Total field strength values and Bz both slowly decreased (neared zero) throughout the period. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from a peak of around 700 km/s early in the period to end-of-period values just below 600 km/s.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated, but gradually decrease over the next two days (27-28 Oct) as positive polarity CH HSS influence wanes. An already enhanced near-Earth solar wind environment is likely to become further enhanced late on 29 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of the 26 Oct CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached unsettled to active conditions, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, this period due to sustained CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 27-29 Oct, with isolated periods of active conditions possible on 28-29 Oct, due to waning CH HSS influence on 28 Oct and the anticipated arrival of the 26 Oct CME on 29 Oct.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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