[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jan 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jan 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low this period. Region 2755 (S35E03, Axx/alpha) continued as a quiet single spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 06-08 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: Both the greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux were below event thresholds throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, and the the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (06-08 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested influence from the southern crown coronal hole. Total field strength reached 15 nT 05/1743 UTC and gradually decreased to around 6 nT by the periods end. The Bz component reached as far south as -14 nT at 05/1742 UTC. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from near 375 km/s to a peak of near 550 km/s. Phi angle was variable through the period but ended the day primarily in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to continue above background levels on 06 Jan and return to nominal levels by 07 Jan. An additional enhancements from another negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated late on 08 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active conditions late in the day in response to sustained southward Bz after 05/1700 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to decrease from unsettled conditions on 06 Jan to mostly quiet on 07 Jan as solar wind conditions return to background levels. An increase to unsettled levels are again likely on 08 Jan due to the anticipated onset of another negative polarity CH HSS.

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