[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jan 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jan 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2756 (N23W85) decayed to plage as it approached the west limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 11-13 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: Both the greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux were below event thresholds throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels during the forecast period (11-13 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the waning influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 550 km/s to near 430 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to decreased over 11 Jan as the influence from the negative polarity CH HSS wanes. Near-background conditions are expected over 12 Jan. An additional weak enhancement from the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected late on 13 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 11-12 Jan. Late on 13 Jan, unsettled conditions are expected due to the anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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