[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jan 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jan 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 18-20 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed between 310-340 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to become weakly enhanced on 19 Jan due to the arrival of the 14 Jan CME, first observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 14/1124 UTC. This event was correlated to EUV darkening observed near S02W12 in GOES SUVI 195 imagery beginning at 14/0952 UTC. A further enhancement is expected on 20 Jan with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the remainder of 18 Jan. Early to midday on 19 Jan, unsettled conditions are likely due to the arrival of the 14 Jan CME. By 20 Jan, unsettled to active conditions are expected with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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