[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jan 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jan 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2757 (N04W35, Hsx/alpha) remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 29-31 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: Both the greater than 2 MeV electrons and 10 MeV protons remained below event thresholds this period.

Forecast: Both the greater than 2 MeV electrons and 10 MeV protons are expected to remain below event thresholds on 29-31 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels until late on 28 Jan when they became slightly elevated likely due to influence of a -CH HSS. Total field and the Bz component underwent extended enhancements reaching 8 nT and -8 nT respectively. Wind speeds increased from ambient, background levels up to ~480 km/s, and will end the period around 415 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative, but oscillated between solar sectors during the period of enhanced field.

Forecast: The slight enhancement in the solar wind environment is anticipated to continue over the course of 29-30 Jan due to the influence of a -CH HSS. A return to ambient, background conditions is expected by 31 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout most of the period under a nominal solar wind regime. Just after 28/2115 UTC, the likely interaction of the -CH HSS increased activity to unsettled levels which continued until 29/0600 UTC.

Forecast: The influence of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods of unsettled levels on 29-30 Jan. Quiet levels are expected for 31 Jan.

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