[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Feb 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Feb 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Very low solar activity continued and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected due to the absence of spots or active regions of note 19-21 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 19-21 Feb, with a chance for high levels 20-21 Feb due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters exhibited an enhanced and disturbed IMF, indicative of what was believed to be slow CME passage (from the 13 Feb DSF). Total IMF strength reached 13 nT. The Bz component was prolonged southward and reached a maximum deviation of -12 nT. The Bz component slowly trended less southward, shifted primarily northward, and became more variable around 18/1900 UTC. Solar wind speed was mainly 350-400 km/s until after 19/0000 UTC, when it increased and eventually reached speeds in excess of 500 km/s. This was possibly due to connection with the south polar, negative polarity CH HSS. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: The solar wind field is expected to remain enhanced and disturbed the remainder of 19 Feb due to weak connection with the south polar, negative polarity CH HSS. Continuing, but waning CH HSS influences are likely to keep the solar wind state mildly disturbed 20-21 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active, with a period of G1 (Minor) storm levels reached during the 19/0300-0600 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with another isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions still likely during the remainder of 19 Feb due to the disturbed and enhanced solar wind field. Quiet to active conditions are likely on 20 Feb due to continuing, but weakening CH HSS influences. 21 Feb is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

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