[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2020 Mar 02 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2020 Mar 02 0510 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 February - 01 March 2020

Solar activity was very low over the period under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 24-25 Feb, 27 Feb, and again on 29 Feb-01 Mar. High levels occurred on 26 and 28 Feb with a peak flux of 2,170 pfu observed at 26/1950 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the period. Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels from 24 Feb through early on 28 Feb. At 28/0650 UTC total field began to increase to around 8 nT while the Bz component became variable between +/-7 nT. Solar wind speed initially increased to 503 at 29/0248 UTC before increasing a second time to 573 km/s at 29/1942 UTC. This increase in solar wind parameters was due to a connection to a negative polarity southern crown coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) followed by a connection with an isolated negative polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet levels on 24-28 Feb and quiet to active levels on 29 Feb-01 Mar.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 March - 28 March 2020

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 02-03, 10-18, 22-28 Mar. High levels are expected on 04-09 and 19-21 Mar due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on 02-07, 18-20, 27-28 Mar with active periods likely on 02, 19, 27-28 Mar due to CH HSS activity.

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