[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jul 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jul 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A new sunspot was just becoming visible at approximately S20E80 in SDO/HMI imagery, but was severely foreshortened at the time of this report. We await observatory reports and better imagery before assigning a new region number. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Model analysis of the partial halo CME observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery on 19 Jul indicated an Earth-directed component is likely, despite its origins in the high latitudes of the NE quadrant and mostly northward ejection trajectory as evidenced in SDO/AIA animations. Overall there is low confidence in the model analysis. Nonetheless some component of this feature may very well become geoeffective on or near 25 Jul.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 21-23 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event thresholds on 21-23 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow solar wind regime. Total IMF field strength peaked at 5 nT and the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed measured primarily from 325-350 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive, but a few deviations into a negative sector occurred.

Forecast: Nominal solar wind parameters are anticipated on 21-22 Jul. Conditions are expected to become enhanced late on 23 Jul with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 21-22 Jul. Unsettled levels are anticipated late on 23 Jul with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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