[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Aug 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Aug 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Slight decay was observed in Region 2768 (N26E21, Axx/alpha). New flux emergence began appearing around 01/0630 UTC from an unnumbered region near N26E75.

An eruptive prominence was observed off the SE limb beginning at 31/1010 UTC in SDO/AIA 171 imagery. An associated CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 31/1724 UTC. Another smaller CME was observed beginning at 31/2336 off the west limb which was likely associated with a small filament eruption at 31/2243 UTC in SDO/AIA 193 imagery near Region 2767 (S21W66, Hax/alpha).

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 01 - 03 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event threshold on 01 - 03 Aug.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 329-381 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on 01 Aug with persistent effects continuing through 03 Aug due to the anticipated onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 01 Aug with unsettled periods possible late with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 02 Aug with quiet to unsettled levels continuing through 03 Aug as effects persist.

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