[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Aug 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Aug 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2770 (N24E42, Cso/beta) exhibited slight regeneration in its trailing spots, but remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 06-08 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 2,820 pfu at 05/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is anticipated to reach high levels on 06 Aug before returning to and remaining at moderate levels for 07-08 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the DSCOVR spacecraft, were indicative of continued, yet waning effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 500 km/s, decreased to around 425 km/s for several hours, then returned to near 500 km/s for the remainder of the period. Total field strength averaged near 4 nT, and the Bz component averaged near +/-4 nT. Phi was predominantly in a positive orientation while undertaking several brief oscillations into a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue their waning trend on 06 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects subside. Ambient-like, background conditions are anticipated for 07 Aug before becoming slightly enhanced on 08 Aug due to a weak, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels as CH HSS influence persisted but weakened.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions, with a chance for an isolated unsettled period, are anticipated for 06 Aug as CH HSS influence gradually subsides. Quiet conditions should then persist through 07 Aug before a chance for isolated unsettled conditions return 08 Aug as a positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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