[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Sep 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Sep 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 03-05 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels, with a chance for very high levels, on 03-05 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed steadily decreased from 525 km/s at the beginning of the period, to near 470 km/s by periods end. Total field averaged near 4 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive (away) solar sector, with periodic oscillations into the negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Continued decreases in solar wind parameters are expected on 03 Sep as the coronal hole moves from its favorable geoeffective position. By 04 Sep, the CH HSS is expected to make its way around the west limb, limiting its influence on the solar wind environment. A return to mostly nominal conditions is expected on 05 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods likely on 03 Sep as CH HSS effects persist. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected by 03 Sep, becoming mostly quiet by 04 Sep and for 5 Sep, as the coronal hole moves beyond the west limb.

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