[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2020 Sep 21 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2020 Sep 21 0147 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 September 2020

Solar activity was very low throughout the reporting period. No spotted regions were observed on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels over the reporting period. The peak flux, as measured by GOES-16, was 289 pfu at 18/1905 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled. Unsettled conditions were observed on 14-15 Sep in response to weak enhancements from positive polarity CH HSS influence. Another isolated period of unsettled was observed on 18 Sep in response to a possible weak transient. The remainder of the reporting period was quiet under nominal solar wind conditions.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 September - 17 October 2020

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are anticipated from 26 Sep - 10 Oct in response to a influence from positive polarity CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 27 Sep; active conditions are likely on 24-25 Sep and 28 Sep; unsettled conditions are likely on 23 Sep, 26 Sep, 29 Sep and 11 Oct. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to multiple, positive polarity CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.

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