[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Sep 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Sep 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 29 Sep - 01 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 29 Sep - 01 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected continue at background levels on 29 Sep - 01 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced today as another positive polarity CH HSS became geoeffective. Solar wind speeds hovered near 600 km/s throughout the period. Total field ranged from 3 nT to 7 nT while the Bz component varied between +5/-6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on 29 Sep - 01 Oct as a large, positive polarity, polar connected CH HSS influences the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speeds in the 650 km/s range are likely based on recurrent data and recent trending.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to persistent CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions, with an isolated G2 (Moderate) storm period likely on 29 Sep. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 30 Sep due continued coronal hole high speed stream activity. Mostly active conditions are expected on 01 Oct as CH activity wanes.

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