[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Oct 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Oct 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2776 (S13W10, Cso/beta) exhibited slight decay, losing nearly all of its trailer spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity on 20-22 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 20 Oct, increasing to moderate to high levels on 21-22 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued near nominal levels. Total field strength reached 10 nT before decreasing to near 3 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -5 nT, wind speed gradually increased to peak near 450 km/s, and the Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue near nominal levels through 20 Oct. Enhanced conditions are expected on 21-22 Oct due to the onset of the first of several CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 20 Oct. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 21 Oct and active to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 22 Oct, due to influence from multiple northern crown CH HSS extensions.

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