[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Oct 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Oct 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2778 (S20W37, Eai/beta-gamma) exhibited growth in size and magnetic complexity, and continued to produce B and C-class flares.

The CME off the SE, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery near 27/0724 UTC, was analyzed and determined to be a possible glancing blow on 1 Nov. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with C-flares likely on 28-30 Oct, as Region 2778 continues to evolve.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 19,941 pfu observed at 27/1835 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 28-30 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds averaged near 500 km/s, total field strength was 5 nT or less, and the Bz component varied between +/- 3 nT. Phi was predominately oriented in a positive solar sector through approx 28/0300 UTC when it began oscillating between sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence through 28-29 Oct. A return to nominal conditions is expected on 30 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 28-29 Oct, and mostly quiet on 30 Oct as CH HSS influences wane over the forecast period.

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